What successful business leaders know is that short-term success might be accidental but long-term success is a matter of being able to ride the waves of change. Change can be large-scale and systemic or it can even be something created by a single enterprise. What is important is the ability to spot the inflections, the critical moment of change, the moment when a once robust business model becomes unsustainable, or the moment when an opportunity opens. As every surfer knows, riding a wave begins with catching it at the right moment. However, spotting a wave too late means never having the opportunity to catch the right moment.
Trends
In the world of business, the waves of change come in the form of trends. Depending on the business, these trends can come in the form of trends in science or technology, or even macroeconomic trends. However, for the retail businesses, the ones that sell products or service to the individual buyer, the important trends are the consumer trends.
In the middle of January this year, Euromonitor released a white paper by Daphne Kasriel-Alexander identifying ten global consumer trends for 2015. The first sentence in the paper captures it well. “Consumption in 2015 is increasingly being driven by the heart: consumers are making choices defined by their positive impact on the world and community…” Across the entire report are three common threads: the effect of technology and online connectedness; the attitude and behavior of the Millennials; and the response of businesses to both.
Top of the Euromonitor list is the trend towards buying convenience. Busy lives mean consumers become stingy with their time. Shopping solutions that cater to the “time-poor” consumer are at the top of this trend list. This, however, is not just about 24/7 or online shopping. It also means that more consumers are choosing to purchase less from nearby stores. The megastores are in decline. Busy lives, interestingly, also result in the “trapped” consumer, the one who is stuck in traffic in a car, or on a train or in transit in an airport or terminal. Airports and hotels now understand that a comfortable sleep or the ability to catch up on exercise during these trapped pockets of time are great attractors for consumers.
The 2015 consumer is also a savvier consumer, with preferences and buying behavior shaped by the easy availability of information and the learned expectation for product specificity. Other trends connect to this: the tendency to rely on friends and sites that provide references and reviews as a method of avoiding wrong purchases; the expectation of seamlessness between virtual and real; the expectation of being able to purchase global products locally; the ability and, for some, the responsibility to share information concerning products with friends.
Second in the list of top trends is one of those things that those of us working in the area of social responsibility have been waiting to gain global traction–responsible consumption. Globally, buyers now see their buying decisions as votes in favor of or against certain issues. Social enterprises, of course, are a great beneficiary of this trend. However, it is clear that virtually all large global brands recognize that consumers want to feel good about how they spend their money. Even the luxury brands are riding this wave, with Rolex’s 2014 “Young Laureates” campaign including messages of “Anyone can change everything” and “Chime for Change”, and Gucci’s female empowerment initiative, asking its customers to support education, health and justice for every girl and woman everywhere. Part of this trend includes products designed for “extreme affordability” and accessibility, those designed to bring products all the way down to the bottom of the pyramid and to the most remote populations.
Shopping light, living light and sharing have changed not only how products are distributed and used but even how they are designed, produced and funded. Many products are now shared or rented instead of outright owned. Many companies work with customers to design products and services, what business analysts call co-creation. In fact, many “crowdfunding” sites now allow the consumer to choose what becomes available to the market by providing capital for ideas.
Within the increasingly communal online space, privacy has become a real concern. The Millennials, the generation that have never known a world without the Internet, have voted with their usage. The massive take-up of the disappearing message app of Snapchat signals that this youngest of the consumer generations has become much more aware of their digital footprint.
In the real world of shopping are two opposite trends: the rise of the community hub, one that is easily accessible and unique, one that provides a sense of identity for a small community on one end; and the rise of the glitzy shopping mall with international brands that attract emerging market consumers to experience the global shopping experience in their backyard.
There are other trend lists. Trendwatchig.com has a list specifically for Asia. Two things are common. First, increased social consciousness and consumer behavior in a digital environment. Specific to this Asian list is the rise of luxury consumption in China.
The wave
For those of us who watch from the relative safety of the sandy shore, it is difficult to understand all that goes into riding those waves. A few things seem clear; it takes balance, timing, and strength. However, all of that balance and timing and strength are useless if there are no waves. Even worse, some waves are potentially fatal.
As any foray into Surfing 101 online will teach you, one of the most basic survival skills for surfers is knowing which waves to catch. A successful ride also requires that the rider have the skills to ride the wave.
Waves are created by wind and their size is affected both by the strength of the wind and by the tide. The type of break depends on the wind and the physical conditions of the area. Beginners need to start with beach breaks, waves that break on a sandy seabed. These are gentle waves and gentle rides. Experts can ride reef breaks, exciting rides with the potential for dangerous wipeouts. And then there are waves everyone should avoid. These are the waves that create rip currents, the strong flows of water that can pull even the strongest swimmer down to deep water.
Clearly not all trends are opportunities for all businesses. The entire point of spotting trends is being able to choose the opportunities that the business has the ability to exploit. You don’t need to ride all the waves.
You can email Maya at integrations_manila@yahoo.com. Please like the Integrations Manila Facebook page or visit her archives atmanilastandardtoday.com/author/maya-baltazar-herrera/ or integrations.tumblr.com or www.mayaherrera.aim.edu.
