Fitch Solutions, a unit of Fitch Group, said it expects the Philippine goods exports to rise 5.0 percent in 2023, slower than the estimated 6.0-percent increase in 2022, amid a slowdown in global demand.
Fitch Solutions said in a report the economic recovery in mainland China was unlikely to offset a broader slowdown in global demand.
“Factoring in the lagged effects of tightening global monetary conditions across the world, our global team expects that global GDP growth will slow to 1.9 percent in 2023 versus 3.1 percent in 2022,” the report said.
“In particular, we expect the US, which is the Philippines’ largest trade partner, to enter a mild recession in 2023, which would bode poorly for Philippine exports. Shipments to the US accounted for roughly 15.4 percent of Philippine exports in 2021,” it said.
It said while real GDP growth in China—-the second-largest export destination at 15.1 percent of total—-is seen to accelerate to 5.0 percent in 2023, from an estimated 3.3 percent in 2022, the recovery “remains bumpy due to uncertainties around the COVID-19 situation.”