Everytime a Philippine President is in crisis, coup rumors abound. With the exception of President Fidel V. Ramos, this has been the case.
President Ferdinand Marcos was ousted in a people power revolt in February 1986. During the term of President Corazon Aquino, about seven coup attempts were mounted, the most serious was the one in 1989 which almost succeeded. In the two instances wherein the terms of two presidents were cut short, it was not a coup in the traditional sense that was responsible but a joint civil-military undertaking. In the case of the late President Marcos, it was the military that sparked the move with the civilians providing the support. With former President Estrada, it was the civil society groups that led the uprising with the military and police finally supporting the move.
The traditional coup which is a purely military undertaking has always failed in our country. The model that has evolved is what we now know as a people power revolt which is largely peaceful. For a brief period, civil society groups who under normal circumstances belong to completely opposite ideologies converge for the purpose of forcing a president to step down. The military in this country, for its part, has never wanted to govern. Military and police leaders to a large degree have only been interested on who will lead the military and the police. Another characteristic of the Philippine model is that what the Police or military would do is not dependent on what the Chief of Staff or the Chief PNP would say.
In the case of EDSA 2, the civil society groups co-opted the lower levels of commands that when the Chief of Staff found out that he had none or very few units to command, he switched sides. This was the same in the case of the Police. The lower-level leaders were recruited first, thereby practically depriving the Chief of any clout when needed.
President Aquino is probably safe from a classic coup but not if there is another convergence of objectives by civil society groups in wanting him to step down. The loyal pronouncements of the Secretary of Defense and his Chief of Staff are not what matter. What is important is whether the lower Commanders would follow. The morale of the police is already low because of the Mamasapano encounter. And if we believe what some sources are saying, morale in the military is also not that good. So there is the possibility that if the Palace cannot manage the crisis well and if different civil society groups can set aside their differences and agree on a common agenda, the position of the President can become very precarious.
It has been more than three weeks since the Mamasapano encounter, yet the issue is still hot. President Aquino seems to have chosen not to be seen or heard, perhaps in the hope that the issue would eventually go away. But the public is still itching to know the extent of his participation in Oplan Exodus. What seems to rile the public is the appearance of President Aquino wanting to protect himself more and simply allow his subordinates to take the blame. There is nothing that the public detests more than a leader who cannot face up to his responsibilities and obligations to his subordinates.
* * *
In one of the Senate hearings, Secretary Leila De Lima delivered a discourse on various issues which she called her preliminary thoughts. One of the issues that she touched was the matter of chain of command.
She went on to say that the term chain of command is military. She seems to have suggested that the Philippine National Police, being civilian in character, does not have a chain of command. Predictably, her preliminary thoughts were used as a defense by both the Palace and Alan Purisima. The former Chief PNP said that he did not inform Secretary Roxas about Oplan Exodus because he was not in the chain of command.
Instead of clarifying the issues, she added to the confusion. For the information of the good Secretary, there is a chain of command in the law enforcement organization. How else could orders be issued and accountability determined? The PNP spokesman, Chief Superintendent Generoso Cerbo, also said as much although he called it line of command which was just a play of words.
Did President Aquino therefore break his own chain of command? To illustrate further: Sometimes, higher commanders bypass an intermediary commander to issue an order to a lower unit. For example, a Regional Director ordering a Police Station Chief to perform a task. Things like this do happen and when it does, the Regional Director informs his provincial Director at the earliest possible time.
What President Aquino did in authorizing a suspended officer to issue orders and not informing the PNP OIC and his own Secretary of Interior and Local Government was worse. It was not simply breaking the chain of command; it was a violation of the law. Even as President, he does not have the authority to authorize the suspended PNP Chief to issue orders.
But this is not the first time that this has happened. I wrote in an earlier piece that during the Luneta fiasco, the person that the Palace called first was not the late Secretary Jesse Robredo, the then DILG Secretary, but his predecessor, former Secretary Ronaldo Puno. We all know what happened to the handling of that incident.
Will President Aquino survive the calls for him to resign? Perhaps. But for all intents and purposes, he has now completely lost his standing with the Filipino people.
